Monitored weekend

Azerbaijan Grand Prix 🇦🇿

2026 · Round 15

Conventional weekend

Forecast monitoring active

Apex Pulse is monitoring the conventional practice-to-qualifying schedule for the next guarded prediction window.

Weekend timing

Next session

Calculating local session time…

Last completed prediction

2026Qualifying completed

Spanish Grand Prix 🇪🇸

Madring · Madrid

Prediction after FP3

Generated before qualifying from the practice data available at this checkpoint.

Prediction evaluated on 20 of 20 entrants. One official entrant was not included in the original pre-qualifying forecast.

Settled · Updated 11 days ago

Weekend progression

Practice to qualifying

FP1
Completed
Sep 11, 11:30 AM
FP2
Completed
Sep 11, 03:00 PM
FP3
Completed
Sep 12, 10:30 AM
Qualifying
Completed
Sep 12, 02:00 PM

Status reflects exported artifact availability, not lap-by-lap live coverage.

Qualifying prediction

Predicted starting order

Ranked from the pre-qualifying forecast. Gaps are relative to the predicted pole lap.

20 forecast drivers

RankDriverTeamPredicted gap

1
ANT
Mercedes
Mercedes
+0.238s
2
NOR
McLaren
McLaren
+0.457s
3
PIA
McLaren
McLaren
+0.515s
4
RUS
Mercedes
Mercedes
+0.538s
5
VER
Red Bull Racing
Red Bull Racing
+0.587s
6
LEC
Ferrari
Ferrari
+0.616s
7
LAW
Red Bull Racing
Red Bull Racing
+1.198s
8
HUL
Audi
Audi
+1.273s
9
HAM
Ferrari
Ferrari
+1.582s
10
LIN
Racing Bulls
Racing Bulls
+1.656s
11
BOR
Audi
Audi
+1.658s
12
OCO
Haas
Haas
+1.780s
13
COL
Alpine
Alpine
+1.812s
14
GAS
Alpine
Alpine
+1.901s
15
TSU
Racing Bulls
Racing Bulls
+2.292s
16
SAI
Williams
Williams
+2.392s
17
ALO
Aston Martin
Aston Martin
+2.412s
18
BOT
Cadillac
Cadillac
+2.418s
19
PER
Cadillac
Cadillac
+2.676s
20
ALB
Williams
Williams
+4.214s

Prediction versus result

How the forecast compared

“Over” means the model predicted a better finishing position than achieved. “Under” means the driver finished higher than predicted.

DriverPredictedOfficialPosition readPred. gapOfficial gapGap error

ANT
Mercedes
Predicted
1
Official
2
Position read
↓ 1 over
Pred. gap
+0.238s
Official gap
+0.011s
Gap error
0.227s
NOR
McLaren
Predicted
2
Official
1
Position read
↑ 1 under
Pred. gap
+0.457s
Official gap
+0.000s
Gap error
0.457s
PIA
McLaren
Predicted
3
Official
7
Position read
↓ 4 over
Pred. gap
+0.515s
Official gap
+0.470s
Gap error
0.045s
RUS
Mercedes
Predicted
4
Official
6
Position read
↓ 2 over
Pred. gap
+0.538s
Official gap
+0.325s
Gap error
0.213s
VER
Red Bull Racing
Predicted
5
Official
3
Position read
↑ 2 under
Pred. gap
+0.587s
Official gap
+0.140s
Gap error
0.447s
LEC
Ferrari
Predicted
6
Official
5
Position read
↑ 1 under
Pred. gap
+0.616s
Official gap
+0.195s
Gap error
0.421s
LAW
Red Bull Racing
Predicted
7
Official
8
Position read
↓ 1 over
Pred. gap
+1.198s
Official gap
+0.492s
Gap error
0.706s
HUL
Audi
Predicted
8
Official
11
Position read
↓ 3 over
Pred. gap
+1.273s
Official gap
+1.399s
Gap error
0.126s
HAM
Ferrari
Predicted
9
Official
4
Position read
↑ 5 under
Pred. gap
+1.582s
Official gap
+0.189s
Gap error
1.393s
LIN
Racing Bulls
Predicted
10
Official
10
Position read
Exact
Pred. gap
+1.656s
Official gap
+1.217s
Gap error
0.439s
BOR
Audi
Predicted
11
Official
12
Position read
↓ 1 over
Pred. gap
+1.658s
Official gap
+1.564s
Gap error
0.094s
OCO
Haas
Predicted
12
Official
13
Position read
↓ 1 over
Pred. gap
+1.780s
Official gap
+1.843s
Gap error
0.063s
COL
Alpine
Predicted
13
Official
9
Position read
↑ 4 under
Pred. gap
+1.812s
Official gap
+1.079s
Gap error
0.733s
GAS
Alpine
Predicted
14
Official
14
Position read
Exact
Pred. gap
+1.901s
Official gap
+1.929s
Gap error
0.028s
TSU
Racing Bulls
Predicted
15
Official
15
Position read
Exact
Pred. gap
+2.292s
Official gap
+2.260s
Gap error
0.032s
SAI
Williams
Predicted
16
Official
17
Position read
↓ 1 over
Pred. gap
+2.392s
Official gap
+3.488s
Gap error
1.096s
ALO
Aston Martin
Predicted
17
Official
18
Position read
↓ 1 over
Pred. gap
+2.412s
Official gap
+3.564s
Gap error
1.152s
BOT
Cadillac
Predicted
18
Official
20
Position read
↓ 2 over
Pred. gap
+2.418s
Official gap
+6.187s
Gap error
3.769s
PER
Cadillac
Predicted
19
Official
19
Position read
Exact
Pred. gap
+2.676s
Official gap
+4.089s
Gap error
1.413s
ALB
Williams
Predicted
20
Official
16
Position read
↑ 4 under
Pred. gap
+4.214s
Official gap
+3.483s
Gap error
0.731s

Event performance

Forecast at a glance

Mean gap error

0.679s

Average absolute error in gap to pole

Position error

1.70

Average positions missed per driver

Top 5 agreement

60%

Predicted and official top-five overlap

Top 10 agreement

90%

Predicted and official top-ten overlap

Forecast coverage

20/20

Official entrants with a preserved forecast

Artifact details

Artifact lifecycle: settled_partial_coverage
Export timestamp: 2026-09-12T15:46:53.225307+00:00
Protocol version: 1.0
Checkpoint identifier: after_fp3
Registry lineage: valid_registry_lineage
Preflight status: ready_to_forecast
Protocol fingerprint: 9b622b043c073d2a
Settlement valid: Yes

How it works

Practice data in. Preserved qualifying prediction out.

Explore methodology

Observe practice

Public FP1, FP2 and FP3 timing, weather and session context form the pre-qualifying evidence.

Predict qualifying pace

A selected tabular model estimates each driver’s gap to pole, then produces the predicted ranking.

Preserve and evaluate

The forecast is frozen before qualifying and compared with the official result afterwards.

Apex Pulse uses public data only. It has no private team telemetry, paid live feed, or control over backend forecasting operations.

About the project

Built by Matteo Sgobba

Apex Pulse turns public free-practice data into pre-qualifying forecasts of the Formula 1 qualifying order, with each prediction frozen before qualifying begins.

GitHub LinkedIn Email